Breaking Down The Economist/YouGov Poll: What Matters Most in the Midterms?

The Economist/YouGov recently conducted a poll of 1500 US adults, asking prospective voters and non-voters a series of questions covering Trump, Putin, the economy and the most important issues to them and breaking out responses by age, gender, race, region, and income. The report is some 300+ pages long, but here are some notable takeaways.

Twenty-Two Percent of Blacks and Just Over Half of Independents Like Trump’s Handling of the Economy

The survey included a series of questions asking respondents to rate the President’s handling of issues like the economy, the environment, and foreign policy. Although Trump’s strongest support on most issues stemmed from groups who already tend to favor him – men, whites, and Republicans – Trump’s handling of the economy earned him notable support from Independents. Forty-percent of Independents approve of his handling of the economy, and 22% strongly approve. Thirty-eight percent disapprove. Although majorities of Black respondents rated the President negatively on most issues, the economy was one area where he earned notable support. Twenty-two percent of Black respondents approve of Trump’s handing of the economy. Overall, a larger share of respondents approved of Trump’s handling of the economy than disapproved – 45% versus 41%. See Question 54D: Trump Approval on Issues — Economy.

Race, Gender, Party, Significantly Affect Whether You think You’ll Pay More or Less Taxes   

Almost twice as many males as females – 27% versus 14% – believe they’ll pay less taxes under the new tax reform law passed by the House. Almost twice as many Black respondents as White respondents think they’ll pay more taxes – 28% versus 15% .  Thirty-two percent of Democrats versus just 8% of Republicans are convinced they’ll pay more.  See Question 46: Tax plan effect – personal.

Immigration More Important to Older Voters, Women, and Whites, Less Important to Youth and Blacks  

When asked how important immigration is, significant age and race differences emerged. Sixty-seven percent of voters over 65 years old said immigration was ‘very important’ versus just 42% of 18-44 year olds. Although 42% of Blacks said immigration was important, 15% said immigration was ‘Not very important’, versus just 10% of Whites and 9% of Hispanics. Slightly more females than males said immigration was important – 53% versus 48% – and slightly more Independents than Democrats said immigration was important – 46% versus 45%. See Question 47B: Issue importance — Immigration.

Significant shares of Non-Voters and Independents Support Trump’s Reelection Bid

Just over half of respondents don’t want Trump to run for reelection– 20% – while 32% do want him to run, and 14% are unsure. Trump’s support is strongest among those over 65 years old, and middle-income earners with an average annual income between $50K and $100K. Forty-two percent of middle-income individuals support his reelection compared to just 25% of respondents who earn under $50K.

Surprising to very few readers if any, Trump retains more support from males than females – 39%  versus 25%. Interestingly, a fairly significant share of respondents who are not registered voters – 20% –support the President running for reelection. A significant share of Independents – 25% – also support Trump’s 2020 bid, though over twice that many – 52% – oppose it. Additional polling digging deeper into the traits of Trump-supportive non-registered voters and Independents could prove valuable in the coming months. See Question 65: Run for Reelection.