These four charts should worry Democrats. Morning Consult recently published the fact that 1 in 4 Democrats want a replacement for Joe Biden, and that reaches a full 40% for voters under 45. Clearly, Democrats are still struggling to convince a massive chunk of the electorate to throw their weight behind Biden, but where his numbers become truly alarming for Democrats is with the under thirty segment. Last week Harvard released their spring 2020 Youth Poll of Americans 18 to 29, and besides the staggering number of young voters who refuse to identify with either party, Biden’s numbers are bleak.
#1. Biden’s Unfavorable Numbers Outrank his Favorable Numbers Among 85% of Under Thirties
Harvard broke the 18 to 29-year-old cohort into five new political categories – Engaged Progressives, Multicultural Moderates, the Center Left, MAGA Gen, and Disengaged. As shown below, the largest category of younger voters is Disengaged, and according to Harvard, this group leans right and rural and 41% approve of President Trump.
Among four of the five political classifications for young Americans, Biden’s unfavorable rating is higher than his favorable rating. Only the 15% of young Americans Harvard dubbed Multicultural Moderates hold a higher favorable rating than unfavorable rating for Biden. Among every other segment – roughly 85% of voters under thirty according to Harvard’s data – Biden’s unfavorable numbers outrank his favorable numbers. Even among Engaged Progressives and the Center Left, Biden’s unfavorables outrank his favorables, as shown below.
#2. Young People from Across the Political Spectrum are Promising to Vote for Trump
President Trump earned surprisingly high support from the 15% of young Multicultural Moderates and the 31% of young Disengaged, as well as cleaning house with the 11% of MAGA Gen. While 33% of young Americans say they will vote for Trump or are considering voting for him, that climbs to 81% among the ‘MAGA Gen’, 46% among ‘Multicultural Moderates’, and 42% among ‘Disengaged Voters’ as shown below.
It’s worth noting that Trump has appreciable numbers of support from all racial groups. Forty percent of young Whites, 25% of young Hispanics, and 23% of young African Americans say they are either voting for Trump in 2020 or considering it.
#3. MAGA Gen is Registered at the Highest Rate Compared to other Groups
While MAGA Gen makes up around 11% of the population according to the researchers, this group is registered at the highest rate of all groups. Eighty-four percent of MAGA Gen is registered to vote, followed closely by 82% of Engaged Progressives as shown below.
#4. Trump Earns High Marks on the Economy Even from the Left
Despite recent economic woes due to the foreign coronavirus, President Trump still earns high marks for his handling of the economy from across the political spectrum. Among the 11% of MAGA Gen 84% support his economic record, among the 15% of Multicultural Moderates 55% support his economic record, and among the 31% of Disengaged 52% support his economic record. Even among the 28% of Center Leftists 29% give Trump high marks on the economy, and among the 15% of Engaged Progressives 15% do, as shown below.
It’s no surprise that Biden is in deep trouble with younger voters, but his high unfavorable numbers combined with increasing numbers of young moderates and independents could be the end for Democrats. What’s more, President Trump’s handling of the economy has earned him broad support across the political spectrum, and Trump-friendly MAGA Gen youth are registered the highest rate of all groups.