The mainstream media polling over the past few months has been rife with statistical inaccuracies and anti-Trump bias but President Trump is still managing to close the gap with Joe Biden. A new CNN poll released Sunday admits Biden is leading Trump by just 4 percentage points leading into the Democratic National Convention. That is down from a highly suspect 14-percentage point lead in June. The new poll places Trump neck and neck with Biden within the margin of error.
More importantly, Biden’s lead disappears into the margin of error across 15 battleground states, with the former Vice President leading President Trump by just one point, 49% to 48%. Trump and Biden’s favorable numbers are even in the battleground states at 45% each.
Majority of Voters Say Trump is the Deciding Factor in their Choice
There is also a wide enthusiasm gap in favor of the President. A significantly larger share of Trump voters intend to vote for him because they support him, not because they oppose Biden. This cannot be said for those who intend to vote for Biden. Thirty percent of voters say they are voting for Trump to support him, while just 19% of voters say they are voting for Biden to support him. Instead, 29% of Biden voters say their vote is against Trump, not for Biden. Only 13% of Trump voters say their vote is against Biden, instead of for Trump. Below is a summary of voter attitudes.
Trump Moves Up with Men, Independents, and More
Among the groups President Trump has gained with since June are men, voters between 35 and 64, and Independents according to CNN. The CNN poll is not the only poll showing the race tightening among these groups. An August 5th poll from The Hill-Harris X showed Biden leading Trump nationwide by just 3 points and gaining with men, Independents, Blacks and Hispanics. Market Research Foundation reported that Trump saw a rise of 4 points with Independents, 3 points with men, and 2 points each with Black and Hispanic voters over the past two weeks.
President Trump’s improvement with Black and Hispanic voters in particular has been incrementally moving upward since May. In June, Market Research Foundation noted that Trump’s approval rating climbed with both groups after the George Floyd riots prompted him to take a tougher stance on crime.
The President’s largest improvement recently comes from West Coasters. The Hill-Harris X poll from July 22nd shows Trump at 32% with West Coasters, but that bumped up to 38% as of August 5th, as shown below.
Kamala VP Pick Turns off a Third of Black Voters
Joe Biden’s Kamala Harris pick is driving some voters away from the Democratic Party. A recent Rasmussen poll shows a third of Black voters are actually less likely to back the Democratic ticket with former prosecutor Kamala Harris as Biden’s pick. This could spell Trouble for Biden who has struggled to secure the Black vote despite his ties to former President Obama.
Black voter turnout dropped seven percentage points in 2016 from a record high in 2012, and there is a growing sense among African Americans of mistrust in the mainstream political establishment.
A June Politico article by Tim Alberta recounts his trip to a cookout full of Black Democrats in an affluent Detroit suburb where this sentiment was high. The story was originally supposed to be about Black voter enthusiasm, but what Alberta ended up uncovering was a growing lack of trust in the Democrat Party and a defeatist outlook on Biden’s chances of ousting President Trump.
While most attendees were resigned to voting for Biden, many regarded him as disingenuous and unlikely to spark real change. Black voters questioned Biden’s credentials, with one attendee asking, “what are his credentials to us, other than Obama picking him?”
Another echoed, “my vote doesn’t matter—it’s all decided by the big money. And like I said, nothing ever changes no matter who wins anyway. Obama. Trump. Biden. Nothing ever changes.”
While none of the attendees at the Detroit event appeared to be avid Trump supporters, some admitted they respected the President’s transparent attitude. One attendee said, “at least with Trump you know where he stands. If we were sitting here, me and you, and you’re pretending we’re friends, but then behind my back, you act like you don’t even know me, that’s the worst. I’d much rather you just tell me to my face that we’re not friends. That’s Trump. I respect that.”
Given the mainstream media’s penchant for oversampling Democrats and Democratic-leaning groups in polls, it is not outside the realm of possibility that Trump has significantly more support than the polls are showing.
Nonetheless, the mainstream media consensus is that President Trump is still behind, but gaining on Joe Biden, and he is performing higher in battleground states than he is nationally.
Polls also show President Trump’s recent gains are with men, Independents, Hispanics, and Blacks, West Coasters, and younger voters, while Biden continues to grip women and urban voters.
