A slew of new polls showing President Trump’s support with Hispanics rising nationwide and skyrocketing in Florida are sending the Biden campaign into panic mode.
- An NBC News/Marist poll from last week shows President Trump leading Biden 50% to 46% in Florida.
- A Quinnipiac survey last week shows Trump leading Biden 45% to 43%.
- In Miami-Dade, a Bendixen & Amandi/Miami Herald poll shows Hispanics split 50/50 between Trump and Biden, but Trump has a 38-point lead over Biden with Cuban Americans.
- Biden’s Hispanic support in Arizona is in jeopardy too, with the latest YouGov poll showing 22% of Arizona Hispanics leaning toward Biden say they are open to switching to Trump.
- The latest YouGov poll shows Biden with just 51% of Latino support nationwide, down from Clinton’s 66% four years ago and Obama’s 71% in 2012.
To clarify, if Biden’s latest polling numbers reflect the share of the Latino vote he gets in November, he will have support 28% lower than that of Obama eight years ago.
Clarissa Martinez de Castro, deputy vice president of policy and advocacy at UnidosUS called Biden’s dwindling Latino support “a wake up call for Democrats” and stated that the Democratic Party assumes Latino’s will vote Blue even with minimal outreach.
The Biden camp is not taking the new numbers lightly, scrambling into action with increased polling and advertising to win back Latinos in Florida and hold onto those in Arizona.
Team Biden recently deployed a poll to 1,800 Latino voters in Florida to better segment and microtarget the diverse group. In Arizona, the Biden campaign is blanketing the state with Spanish-language ads focused on economic issues.
The problem is, Biden and the Democrat’s Latino troubles have been building for years.
Hispanic enthusiasm for Democrats was already dwindling nationwide in 2016, when Clinton underperformed Obama’s 2012 numbers with just 66% of the vote compared to Obama’s 71%.
Despite relentless rhetoric from the mainstream media portraying President Trump as anti-Hispanic, he won a comparable share to that of Mitt Romney in 2012 – 28% versus Romney’s 27%. Biden, meanwhile, is on track to perform worse than Clinton with Hispanics, and much worse than Obama.
There are a number of reasons why Democrats are struggling with Latino support, but two key accelerators are concerns for the economy and public safety. The foreign coronavirus that wreaked havoc on the U.S. and global economies demolished a great deal of President Trump’s economic legacy.
Latinos were one of the hardest hit groups when covid-19 shuttered a vast swathe of American businesses, and at the height of the pandemic Latinos had an unemployment rate over 18%.
Despite these struggles, Latinos are significantly more optimistic about a rapid economic recovery compared to both Blacks and Whites. They are also increasingly economically-motivated voters, especially Latino men.
Equis Research polling shows that Latino men are particularly concerned about the impact of the coronavirus on the economy, and this may be driving support for Trump over Biden compared to women. Below is a state-by-state graphic by Equis showing candidate lean by gender among Hispanics.
Factor two driving Latino support for President Trump is the clear division between how the left and right view public safety, law and order, and basic protections for life and property.
The riots, looting, theft, and subsequent homicides that spread like wildfire across the country in the wake of the tragic death of George Floyd exposed the left’s tolerance for destruction and unwillingness to condemn lawless anarchists.
President Trump meanwhile, has maintained that senseless violence and property destruction will not be tolerated, and Latinos appear particularly receptive to calls for law and order.
In June, Market Research Foundation analyzed polling data on President Trump’s approval and found Trump gained support among both Black and Hispanic voters in the week after the riots and looting escalated.
YouGov polling from late May before the chaos ensued showed President Trump’s approval rating at 39% with Hispanics, and 12% with Blacks. Polling taken in early June as the riots escalated showed his approval rating jumped to 42% with Hispanics and 18% with African Americans, as shown below.
President Trump’s ‘strong approval’ numbers increased for both groups as well. His strong approval went from 17% to 28% with Hispanics and from 7% to 11% with African Americans over between May 25th and June 1st.
The Biden campaign is scrambling last minute to hold onto Latino voters, but microtargeting only goes so far. At some point, the record of a candidate is more important than his ability to tell different groups of voters what they want to hear.
Latinos are increasingly driven by economic and public safety concerns, and Biden and the Democrats continue to fail when it comes to quelling the violence and restoring the economy. Meanwhile, President Trump has skillfully navigated the country though one of the most devastating economies in decades.
As of Labor Day, the unemployment rate dropped to 8.4% and more Americans have left the unemployment line than the entire population of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, according to Americans for Limited Government. The divergence between the two parties is growing, and the Democrat Party is pushing Latinos away with a lackluster response to crime and the economy.