The latest polls show the contentious battle for two Georgia Senate seats – and control of the United States Senate – will be close. Five Thirty Eight has Republican David Perdue close to a tie with Democrat Jon Ossoff, and gives Democrat Raphael Warnock a small lead over Republican Kelly Loeffler. However, analysts are quick to note that the same polling errors that plagued the 2020 Presidential Election and underestimated Trump support, could be skewing the numbers in Democrats’ favor.
As Market Research Foundation noted last week, Democrats have an uphill battle to make up for losses in Georgia. GOP Senator David Perdue won 49.7% of the vote on November 3rd to Democrat challenger Ossoff’s 47.9%. In the special election to fill Senator Johnny Isakson’s seat, GOP Senator Kelly Loeffler split her share of the vote with fellow GOP candidate Doug Collins, and the two of them won a combined 45% of the vote to Democrat challenger Raphael Warnock’s 32.9%.
A comprehensive poll of over 1,600 Georgia voters taken for Democratic candidate for the Senate Matt Lieberman reveals deep partisan splits on issues such as addressing reopening the economy, views on the federal government, and views on police and police funding as well as race issues.
Georgia Democrats and Independents are Souring on the Federal Government
In general, conservatives have a bone to pick with the federal government and view it less favorably than liberals do, but polling shows it is Georgia Democrats and Independents who are souring on the federal government.
Sixty-three percent of Democrats and 61% of Independents view the federal government unfavorably, compared to 37% of Republicans. Those with a college degree also view the federal government less favorably than those without. Fifty-seven percent of those with a college degree view the federal government unfavorably, versus 49% of those without one.
Black men split from Democrats, say covid-19 restrictions have gone too far
The source of this surge in anti-federal government sentiment likely stems from the government’s response to covid-19. When asked if measures taken by the federal government to slow the spread of the coronavirus are appropriate, not enough, or too much, just 30% of Georgia voters overall say the measures are appropriate. Ten percent say the measures are too much, and 53% say the measures are not enough.
Among Democrats, a full 78% believe the federal government did not go far enough, as do 58% of Independents compared to just 26% of Republicans. Aside from partisanship, age, race, and gender are pivotal variables in how Georgia voters view the federal government’s response to covid-19.
Sixteen percent of voters under 30 believe the government has gone too far, one of the highest groups to think so. Black and Hispanic voters are both slightly more likely than white voters to say the government has gone too far, with 11% of both Black and Hispanic voters stating this compared to 10% of white voters.
The group most likely to say the government has gone too far is Black men, a full 19% of whom express this sentiment, almost twice the rate of Georgia voters overall. What’s more, 20% of Black men say they trust the GOP more on handling the coronavirus.
Police are largely viewed favorably including among Black and Hispanic voters
The ‘defund the police’ rallying cry the radical Left has allowed to take hold of the Democratic Party continues to divide voters.
Overall, the police are well liked in Georgia, with 66% of voters overall expressing a favorable view of the police, versus 33% who express an unfavorable view.
Although Democrats are much more likely to express an unfavorable view of the police (58%), 40% still express a favorable view. Negative views of the police are higher among Black voters, but 40% of Blacks still express a positive view of the police, with Black women expressing slightly higher favorable views than Black men (41% versus 38%). Hispanic voters are almost split, with 50% holding a positive view of the police and 48% holding a negative view.
Higher educated Georgia voters also express more positive views of the police, with 72% of college graduates versus 60% of non-graduates stating they hold a favorable view of the police.
Support for the Black Lives Matter movement also falls along party and racial lines, with 56% of Georgia voters holding a favorable view of the group compared to 43% who hold a negative view. Ninety-one percent of Democrats, 55% of Independents, and 23% of Republicans hold a favorable view of Black Lives Matter. By race, 62% of white voters hold an unfavorable view of Black Lives Matter, but so do 17% of Blacks and 18% of Hispanics. Among Black men, almost a quarter (24%) hold a negative view of Black Lives Matter, and 12% of Black women feel the same.
These findings have substantial implications for both Senate races. David Perdue won 17% of the Black male vote in November, and 8% of the Black female vote. Perdue also performed better with Latinos than President Trump, winning 43% of the Latino vote to Trump’s 37%. Among Latino men, Perdue won 45% of the vote, and among Latino women, he won 42%.
Loeffler, unlike Perdue, did not do nearly as well with Black men, earning just 7% of their vote, while 9% of Black men preferred Collins instead. Just 5% of Black women supported Loeffler, and 4% supported Collins. Twenty-seven percent of Latino men and 16% of Latino women supported Loeffler.