“Among those more likely to keep their Trump vote secret, were men earning above the median income, women in general but particularly college-educated white women, working women, suburban women, and urbanites of both genders, as well as people of color.”
The cancel culture environment that has reared up in reaction to vocal conservatives and particularly Trump voters is not just troubling because it suppresses free speech and healthy debate, but because it obstructs reality. The obstruction of reality comes at a cost, and the cost is accuracy.
There was nearly universal agreement among pollsters in the months leading up to the 2020 election that then-President Trump would lose to Joe Biden by anywhere from 6 to 10 percentage points.
Although the pollsters correctly identified the winner – unlike four years ago – they significantly underestimated how close the presidential election would be and underestimated Republican victories in a multitude of House races.
In Florida, polls predicted Trump would lose by one or two percentage points in the months leading up to the election, but he ended up beating Biden by over 3 percentage points, securing a victory over 2.5 points higher than his victory in 2016.
In Ohio, Trump ended up winning more votes than any candidate in Ohio history and beating Biden by just over 8 percentage points, while polls projected he would narrowly lose to Biden.
Iowa polls had Trump eking out a 2-point victory, and he ended up beating Biden by over 8 percentage points. In Texas, pollsters had Trump beating Biden by an average of 1.3 percentage points – some polls had him losing – and he ended up winning by 5.6 points. Wisconsin polls had Biden beating Trump by almost 7 percentage points, and he ended up doing so by less than one.
Polls also failed to capture Republican victories in the House and Senate. According to NPR, among “toss-up” seats identified by the Cook Political Report, all of them went to a Republican. Further, a third of “lean Democratic” House races went to Republicans.
Now the media and polling community are scrambling over the numbers trying to figure out what went wrong – again.
Part of the reason polls were so far in 2020 is due to under-sampling of conservative-leaning groups, just like in 2016.
Market Research Foundation covered the bias in poll sampling last summer, noting that many media outlets were conducting polls with sample populations that looked nothing like the actual electorate, leading to skewed results.
For example, one CNBC poll from mid-August oversampled younger voters by 20% and under-sampled older voters by 15% and Republicans by 8%. This skewed sampling inflated the numbers for groups that supported Biden and shrunk the numbers for groups that supported Trump compared to their numbers in the population.
Top Trade Guru discovered sampling barely resembling the 2016 electorate in an August 10-11 Reuters/Ipsos poll. The pollsters constructed a sample of 50% Democrats and 37% Republicans, despite Republicans making up 48% of the 2016 electorate.
“The pollsters constructed a sample of 50% Democrats and 37% Republicans, despite Republicans making up 48% of the 2016 electorate.”
However, biased sampling errors are only address half of the equation when it comes to understanding why polls missed conservatives and Trump voters again.
There is growing evidence that Republicans, and particularly Trump supporters, either did not participate in polls as frequently as Democrats or intentionally misrepresented who they were supporting out of mistrust of the polling process or fear of backlash.
A 2020 study by CloudResearch showed Republicans and independents are half as likely as Democrats to say they would not give their true opinion in polls asking about their political views. According to Leib Litman, the chief research officer, a common reason given by respondents for why they would not tell the truth was, “it’s dangerous to express an opinion outside of the current liberal viewpoint.”
“A common reason given by respondents for why they would not tell the truth was, it’s dangerous to express an opinion outside of the current liberal viewpoint.”
The researchers controlled for age, education, race, and income. But only political preference was correlated to an unwillingness to for conservatives to share their views with pollsters.
There is also evidence to support the theory that white college graduates vote very differently than estimated in polls. Trump far outperformed the polls on election day among white college graduates, despite virtually every pre-election poll showing Trump trailing behind Biden with these voters.
The election recap report published by Public Opinion Strategies notes that Trump voters were significantly more likely than Biden voters to keep their political views secret from friends and family.
Among those more likely to keep their Trump vote secret, were men earning above the median income, women in general but particularly college-educated white women, working women, suburban women, and urbanites of both genders, as well as people of color.
“Among those more likely to keep their Trump vote secret, were men earning above the median income, women in general but particularly college-educated white women, working women, suburban women, and urbanites of both genders, as well as people of color.”
The analysts recontacted shy Trump voters after the election and asked them why they kept their Trump-preference secret, and reasons cited included genuine concerns for personal safety, ostracization from family members, and being labeled a racist. One individual stated, “I was afraid for my safety. Because of the way the media had portrayed everything… that it was okay to be a Democrat, but not a Republican.”
“I was afraid for my safety. Because of the way the media had portrayed everything… that it was okay to be a Democrat, but not a Republican.”
The reality is mainstream media, academia, most corporate workplace environments, and the popular culture in general, are hostile environments to conservatives, and because of this more and more conservatives are opting out of sharing their views.
By allowing dogmatic leftwing ideologies to be enforced through threats of job loss, violence, deplatforming and canceling, the radical left has created an environment where conservatives and ‘shy Trump voters’ are driven underground. Big tech’s censorship is only exacerbating this trend.
To leftwing fascists, this might sound great. Free speech is irrelevant to these types, and as long as Americans are obedient, all is well. Unfortunately for the left, conservatives who distrust the media, the institutions, and the pollsters, still ended up voting for Trump. Their views did not change, they just kept them secret.
Driving conservatives from feeling comfortable participating in public discourse is going to continue to result in flawed election predictions – and big surprises – not to mention a hostile cultural environment.
