This gradual uptick in Trump support among a group that shifted significantly toward the right between 2016 and 2020 is an early warning to Democrats and the corporate GOP.
Former President Trump’s significant gains among Hispanics last November made headlines, but little attention has been paid to Hispanic support for Trump since then.
Despite Trump’s forced absence from the public eye thanks to an unholy alliance between big tech and corporatists in DC, Trump’s support among Hispanics has been steadily growing since January according to Market Research Foundation analysis.
An analysis of YouGov polling data dating from early January through mid-March shows Hispanic support for Trump has climbed from 28% in early January to 35% as of March 13th.
This gradual uptick in Trump support among Hispanics – a group that shifted significantly toward the right between 2016 and 2020 – is an early warning to Democrats and the corporate GOP heading into the midterms.
Recent polling shows Hispanics are one of Trump’s most loyal groups – by a margin of almost three to one Republican Hispanics see a Trump endorsement of a GOP primary candidate as a motivator to vote for that candidate. On the flip side, by greater than a two to one margin Hispanics say they won’t support a candidate who has criticized Trump. The corporate GOP will have a hard time selling a Trump critic to Hispanics in the midterms.
By a margin of almost three to one Republican Hispanics see a Trump endorsement of a GOP primary candidate as a motivator to vote for that candidate.
Hispanics are also extremely critical of the outcome of the 2020 election. A February 6th poll found 23% of Hispanics do not believe Biden won the presidency, and less than half (43%) were excited about Biden taking office.
Another poll found by a margin of 43% to 41% Hispanics believe either a lot or a little voter fraud occurred in the 2020 election. The same poll found 32% of Hispanics supported the protestors who entered the capitol to protest the certification of Joe Biden as the winner of the Electoral College on January 6th.
Hispanics are also very favorable of the limited government Tea Party movement of the 2010’s. By a margin of 49% to 31% Hispanics who have heard of the movement are favorable of it, and almost 20% are very favorable of the movement.
By a margin of 49% to 31% Hispanics are favorable of the Tea Party movement, and almost 20% are very favorable of the movement.
Hispanics favor business experience above other attributes in political leaders, with 62% saying business experience is ‘the most’ or ‘very’ important in a candidate. In a mid-February poll, Hispanics gave Trump significantly higher marks for business experience when matched head-to-head with President Biden. By a margin of 46% to 26% Hispanics rank Trump as better at business experience.
The same survey asked Hispanics whether they believe the number of immigrants into the U.S. should be increased, decreased, or stay the same. By a margin of two to one Hispanics want immigration into the U.S. reduced or kept the same instead of increased, views that place them squarely in Trump’s constituency.
By a margin of two to one Hispanics want immigration into the U.S. reduced or kept the same instead of increased, views that place them squarely in Trump’s constituency.
As Market Research Foundation noted after the November election, Trump made historic gains with Latino men and women alike that helped propel him to victory in hard-fought states like Texas and Florida.
CNN’s national exit poll shows Trump earning 32% of Hispanics nationwide, up from 28% in 2016. His numbers with Hispanic men rose from 32% to 36% and his numbers with Hispanic women rose from 25% to 28%.
Trump’s decisive victory in Florida was one of the best examples of the mass Latino realignment in his favor. Latino voters played a pivotal role in Trump’s victory, with the former president amassing 55% of Cubans, 30% of Puerto Ricans and 48% of other Latino voters. Trump also massively improved on his own 2016 numbers by nearly 14 points in Miami-Dade County where Cubans make up over 25% of the electorate.
Latino voters played a pivotal role in Trump’s victory in Florida, with the former president amassing 55% of Cubans, 30% of Puerto Ricans and 48% of other Latino voters.
In Texas, Trump defeated Biden 52.3% to 46.2%, and ate aggressively into Democrat margins in Latino-heavy counties. Four in 10 Latinos voted for the former president in Texas, up from 3 in 10 in 2016, according to Reuters. Starr County Texas, which clocks in at 96% Latino, making it the most Latino county in the United States, saw a massive realignment toward the GOP last night. Clinton won Starr county 79% to Trump’s 17% in 2016, but Biden almost lost it, barely eking out a victory of 52% to Trump’s 47% according to Fox News.
In Cook County, Illinois where Chicago is located, areas where over 30% of residents are First Generation saw both an increase in voter turnout, and a shift toward Trump. The shift was even more marked in areas where Latinos make up over 50% of the population. Almost all of the precincts with a majority Latino population saw an uptick in support for Trump.
In heavily-Latino districts in California, the GOP flipped four House seats with a diverse slate of candidates who focused on Trumpish approaches to law and order, immigration, and lower taxes.
In heavily-Latino districts in California, the GOP flipped four House seats with a diverse slate of candidates who focused on Trumpish approaches to law and order, immigration, and lower taxes.
Looking toward the midterms, growing numbers of Hispanics are likely to align with conservative candidates with a Trump endorsement who support limited government, reduced or leveled off immigration into the U.S., and place focus on restoring the economy. Business experience continues to be one of the most important factors to Hispanics when considering a candidate, and contenders who emphasize their business background will likely have an edge.
