The far left’s myopic focus on race and refusal to condemn violence at the hands of leftwing mobs lost them Latino votes. A winning strategy is one that focuses on issues important to Latinos – economic growth, law and order, and legal and fair elections.
Last week, Market Research Foundation analyzed two and a half months of YouGov data showing Hispanic support for Trump has been on the rise and climbed 7 points since January.
We noted that by a margin of almost three to one Republican Hispanics see a Trump endorsement of a GOP primary candidate as a motivator to vote for that candidate. On the flip side, by greater than a two to one margin Hispanics say they will not support a candidate who has criticized Trump.
We note that 23% of Hispanics do not believe Biden won the presidency, and by a margin of 43% to 41% Hispanics believe either a lot or a little voter fraud occurred in the 2020 election.
Hispanics are also very favorable of the limited government Tea Party movement of the 2010’s. By a margin of 49% to 31% Hispanics who have heard of the movement are favorable of it, and almost 20% are very favorable of the movement.
The left has puzzled over Trump’s outsized Latino victories in once Democratic strongholds, but they continue to miss the reason Trump did so well with Hispanics in 2020.
The left has puzzled over Trump’s outsized Latino victories in once Democratic strongholds, but they continue to miss the reason Trump did so well with Hispanics in 2020.
Nationwide Trump earned 32% of the Hispanic vote, up from 28% in 2016. His numbers with Hispanic men rose from 32% to 36% and his numbers with Hispanic women rose from 25% to 28%.
Latino voters played a pivotal role in Trump’s victory in Florida, with the former president amassing 55% of Cubans, 30% of Puerto Ricans and 48% of other Latino voters. Trump improved on his own 2016 numbers by nearly 14 points in Miami-Dade County where Cubans make up over 25% of the electorate.
Trump improved on his own 2016 numbers by nearly 14 points in Miami-Dade County where Cubans make up over 25% of the electorate.
In Texas, Trump defeated Biden 52.3% to 46.2%, and ate aggressively into Democrat margins in Latino-heavy counties. Four in 10 Latinos voted for the former president in Texas, up from 3 in 10 in 2016, according to Reuters.
Starr County Texas, which clocks in at 96% Latino – making it the most Latino county in the United States – saw a massive realignment toward the GOP last night. Clinton won Starr county 79% to Trump’s 17% in 2016, but Biden almost lost it, barely eking out a victory of 52% to Trump’s 47% according to Fox News.
Zapata County, a 95% Latino county, went to Clinton by 33 points four years ago, but Trump won if by five last November. Several other majority Hispanic Texas counties flipped from Clinton to Trump too – La Salle, Jim Wells, Kenedy and Kleberg.
The recent rise in Trump support among Latinos despite the former president being kept out of the public eye, shows conservatives have an opportunity to continue building inroads with Latinos heading into the midterms. While the left and the mainstream media have attempted to unpack the reason for Trump’s success with Hispanics to ensure it doesn’t happen again, they have largely missed the point.
While the left and the mainstream media have attempted to unpack the reason for Trump’s success with Hispanics to ensure it doesn’t happen again, they have largely missed the point.
The Associated Press for example released a warning in March that ‘misinformation campaigns’ targeting Latinos on social media sites were responsible for Trump’s gains in 2020. The term ‘misinformation’ is one of the left’s favorite buzzwords to discredit ideas that criticize the mainstream. It may be comforting to assume Latinos were duped into voting for Trump, rather than considering that they did so because they liked his stance on issues like law and order, immigration, and fair elections.
The term ‘misinformation’ is one of the left’s favorite buzzwords to discredit ideas that criticize the mainstream. It may be comforting to assume Latinos were duped into voting for Trump, rather than considering that they did so because they liked his stance on issues like law and order, immigration, and fair elections.
At the core of Trump’s success was a strategy that refused to see the Latino vote as a monolith and rejected speaking to Latinos through a racial lens. While the Biden campaign made race — and perceived racial inequalities — a central focus all last year, Trump refused to play that game.
Instead, Trump’s outreach to Latinos focused on a commitment to law and order, a commitment to reopening the economy, and a focus on ending illegal immigration and ensuring a fair and legal election.
While Democrat-controlled cities descended into chaos and lawlessness in the wake of the George Floyd riots last summer, Trump hammered home a message of law and order.
Market Research Foundation was one of the few organizations to show Trump’s uptick in Latino support (and African American support) in the weeks following the George Floyd riots. Trump’s approval rating rose 3 points among Hispanics and 6 points among Blacks in the weeks after the riots began, and he continued to gain support with minorities that translated into votes in November.
Latinos are particularly concerned about the left’s “defund the police” narrative, an issue that Biden bungled by refusing to disavow it. A June, 2020 ABC News/Ipsos poll found two-thirds of Americans oppose the radical left’s call to “defund the police”, including 58% of Hispanics.
The Biden administration continues to create policies that will drive away at least sections of the Latino vote. Biden’s lax approach to rising illegal immigration on the southern border may appeal to an arm of the Latino vote, but recent polling shows by a margin of two to one Hispanics want immigration reduced or kept the same instead of increased, views that place them squarely in Trump’s constituency.
Biden’s lax approach to rising illegal immigration on the southern border may appeal to an arm of the Latino vote, but by a margin of two to one Hispanics want immigration reduced or kept the same instead of increased, views that place them squarely in Trump’s constituency.
Second, while the Biden administration is attempting to weaken voter ID laws and make it easier for non-eligible populations to vote, Latinos by and large support strict voter ID laws. A March YouGov survey found 64% of Hispanics support a voter ID requirement, compared to 23% who oppose such a requirement. What is more, less than a third of Hispanics would support ‘no excuse’ voting, where absentee ballots are sent out en masse to voters without a request.
Less than a third of Hispanics would support ‘no excuse’ voting, where absentee ballots are sent out en masse to voters without a request.
The Latino vote is diverse and in flux, and neither party should assume a monopoly on these voters. Conservatives have an opportunity in the midterms to carry the Trump enthusiasm forward and continue to increase their margins with Latinos. The far left’s myopic focus on race and refusal to condemn violence at the hands of leftwing mobs lost them Hispanic votes in 2020. A winning strategy for 2022 is one that focuses on issues important to Latinos – economic growth, law and order, and legal and fair elections.
