Latinos’ views place them at odds with the modern Democratic Party on issues like capitalism and socialism, welfare, and family values.
Mounting evidence, including a thorough examination of the Latino swing toward former President Trump between 2016 and 2020, should be alarming to Democrats banking on a ‘demographic destiny’ of guaranteed Latino voters.
Instead, data points to a steep decline in Hispanic support for Democrats over the past four years. What is more, months of non-partisan polling since President Biden took office show lukewarm Latino support for Biden’s handling of the immigration crisis and rising favorability of Trump.
The NRSC Hispanic Battleground survey refutes the theory of a ‘demographic destiny’, whereby an increase in Hispanic voters leads to an increase in Democratic voters. Across a series of issues, from views on capitalism and socialism to views on welfare and family values, Latinos’ views place them at odds with the modern Democratic Party.
The NRSC report found Latinos support capitalism over socialism by a margin of 63% to 17%, and support for capitalism is highest among Cubans (73%). What is more, 58% of Latinos believe too many Americans are living off the government and 50% say Democrat policies hurt families. Over two-thirds of Latinos (67%) say too many Americans are losing traditional values centered on faith, family, and freedom.
Latinos support capitalism over socialism by a margin of 63% to 17%, and support for capitalism is highest among Cubans (73%).
Over two-thirds of Latinos (67%) say too many Americans are losing traditional values centered on faith, family, and freedom.
Over two-thirds of Latinos (67%) say too many Americans are losing traditional values centered on faith, family, and freedom.
Looking back at the 2020 presidential election, Hispanic voters made an unmistakable shift toward the GOP and former President Trump. This has been analyzed in great detail by Market Research Foundation, as well as left-leaning research groups.
Democratic analytics firm Catalist completed an autopsy of the 2020 election and found Latinos made an 8 percentage-point swing toward Trump from 2016 to 2020. According to Catalyst, the largest decreases in Latino support for Democrats occurred in Florida, where Latinos swung away from the Democrat Party by 14 points. Democrats suffered a 9% shift away from the party in Texas and Wisconsin, an 8% shift in Nevada, a 6% shift in Pennsylvania, a 5% shift in Arizona, and a 4% shift in Georgia.
A Democratic analytics firm found Latinos swung toward Trump by 8 percentage-points from 2016 to 2020.
The largest decline in Democrat support between 2016 and 2020 occurred among Cubans, where Democrats suffered a 13% decline, followed by Puerto Ricans (9%), Dominicans (8%) and Mexicans (6%).
The largest decline in Democrat support between 2016 and 2020 occurred among Cubans, where Democrats suffered a 13% decline, followed by Puerto Ricans (9%), Dominicans (8%) and Mexicans (6%).
This overall decline in support for Democrats among an increasingly diverse electorate is not surprising, considering a majority of new immigrants consider themselves Conservate or Moderate, not Liberal.
Market Research Foundation’s comprehensive 2018 immigration found over two-thirds of Hispanics (67%) consider themselves Conservative or Moderate on economic issues, and slightly smaller shares consider themselves Conservative or Moderate on healthcare, education, and moral issues like same-sex marriage.
Sixty-three percent consider themselves Conservative or Moderate on education issues, 60% consider themselves Conservative or Moderate on healthcare issues, and 58% consider themselves Conservative or Moderate on moral issues.
Market Research Foundation’s immigration survey found over two-thirds of Hispanics consider themselves Conservative or Moderate on economic issues.
Market Research Foundation also broke out views by region of origin and found that First Generation Americans from Central America generally hold less Liberal views than those from South America.
For instance, 68% of Central Americans are Conservative or Moderate on economic issues, while 63% of South Americans do. While 64% of Central Americans are Conservative or Moderate on education issues, 57% of South Americans are. While 64% of Central Americans are Conservative or Moderate on healthcare, 52% of South Americans are, and while 59% of Central Americans are Conservative or Moderate on moral issues, 53% of South Americans are.
Sixty-eight percent of Central Americans are Conservative or Moderate on economic issues.
Another important takeaway from Market Research Foundation’s immigration survey is the disconnect between Conservative and Moderate views, and identification with the GOP label.
Despite an overwhelming majority of Hispanics immigrants holding Conservative or Moderate views, most identify as Independents, followed by Democrats, and then Republicans.
For example, 17% of Hispanic First Generation Americans identify as Republicans, while 40% identify as Independents and 37% identify as Democrats.
A slightly higher percentage (19%) of Central Americans identify as Republican, while a slightly smaller share (32%) identify as Democrats but the majority identify as Independents (42%). Among South Americans, almost half (49%) identify as Democrats, while 14% identify as Republicans and 33% identify as Independents.
Hispanic voters are not a monolith, and do not vote like one. While Hispanics may be reluctant to identify as Republican in certain regions, a majority of Hispanics identify as Independents, and hold Moderate and Conservative views across a range of policy issues. It is therefore unsurprising that Hispanics are moving away from the modern Democratic Party.
Data also shows Hispanics are overrepresented among new voters in 2020, or those who did not vote in 2016. Understanding the degree to which new voters, and new Hispanic voters, aligned with each party will be important information going into the midterms.
