“Tuesday’s vote signals that how voters feel about Biden is likely to be highly correlated to their vote choice, and Biden’s approval rating has been tanking all over the country.”
Last Tuesday’s special election to determine the fate of California Governor Gavin Newsom appeared to be a victory for Democrats on the surface. Voters decided 63.5% to 36.5% not to recall the controversial former San Francisco mayor, putting a halt to the recall effort and allowing Newsom to finish his term.
As Market Research Foundation noted last week, the anti-recall effort was substantially more well-funded than the pro-recall effort, and was able to raise $83 million dollars to keep Newsom in office. This amount was close to twice the $45.2 million the pro-recall effort raised. Among the wealthy donors intent on keeping Newsom in power were Netflix CEO Reed Hastings and globalist billionaire George Soros.
Despite being outspent almost two to one, the pro-recall effort was still able to persuade over a third of Californians to demand new leadership. The well-funded Newsom managed to stay in power for now, but Tuesday’s election contains three substantial warnings to Democrats.
One: Non-college whites moved further away from the Democratic Party
The educational divide continued to widen, with non-college whites shifting substantially away from Democrats. Exit polls show Newsom lost 10 percentage points with non-college voters compared to 2018.
Exit polls also show non-college whites voted to recall Newsom 55% to 45%, while college-educated whites voted not to recall him 70% to 30%. Voters who had never attended college supported the recall 52% to 48%, while voters with some college up to an advanced degree opposed the recall.
“Non-college whites voted to recall Newsom 55% to 45%.”
These numbers are troubling to a Democratic Party hoping to rebuild inroads with non-college whites.
Two: Newsom lost ground with Hispanics compared to 2018
California Hispanics have been revolting against Democratic leadership in increasing numbers, helping to flip four House seats into Republican control last year.
Exit polls show a full 40% of California Hispanics supported the recall of Gov. Newsom on Tuesday.
“Exit polls show a full 40% of California Hispanics supported the recall of Gov. Newsom on Tuesday.”
These numbers are more concerning when compared to the share of the Hispanic vote Newsom received in 2018. Back then, Newsom won 64% of Hispanics, and lost 35% to Republican John Cox.
This data indicates Newsom has lost four to five points with Hispanics since 2018. Newsom’s dwindling Hispanic support coincides with Biden’s own loss of support, and brings us to problem number three for Democrats…
Three: Biden’s numbers are falling everywhere, and views of Biden are highly predictive of how people will vote
President Biden’s favorable numbers in California have plummeted an average of 12 points since January. Now, California still gives Biden a fairly high overall approval rating of 58%, but that is down from a high of 70% in January.
“Biden’s favorable numbers in California have plummeted an average of 12 points since January.”
Exit polls show how voters feel about Biden was highly predictive of how they voted in the recall. Those who voted against the recall had a net favorable view of Biden, while those who voted for the recall had a net unfavorable view of Biden.
“Exit polls show how voters feel about Biden was highly predictive of how they voted in the recall.”
This is unsurprising, but it signals that heading into the mid-terms, how voters feel about Biden is likely to be highly correlated to their vote choice, and Biden’s approval rating has been tanking all over the country.
Biden sat at an approval rating of 53% in January according to YouGov, and that is down to just 42% according to the latest YouGov poll.
When broken out by demographic group, it is easy to see where Biden is losing support the most. Since January, Biden has lost ten points with both college-educated and non-college educated white men. Among college educated white men, Biden’s approval fell from 50% in January to 40% this month, while among non-college educated white men, his approval fell from 40% in January to just 30% this month.
“Biden has lost ten points with both college-educated and non-college educated white men since January.”
Among college-educated white women, Biden is down just one point, from 56% in January to 55% in early September. Among non-college white women Biden is down 9 points, from 42% in January to 33% in early September.
Among Hispanics, Biden’s support has tanked 16 points, from a high of 61% in January to just 45% as of early September. Biden has also lost 12 points with Blacks, going from 77% in January to 65% early this month.
“Among Hispanics, Biden’s support has tanked 16 points, from a high of 61% in January to just 45% as of early September.”
Biden’s support from voters under thirty fell a panic-worthy 22 points, from a lukewarm 56% in January to an alarming 34% in September.
Biden’s approval numbers with Independents weren’t much to boast about to start with, but he’s lost another six points, going from 43% in January to 37% in September.
The continued exodus of non-college whites from the Democratic Party and the undeniable shift of Hispanics toward the GOP are troubling signs for Democrats as the mid-terms approach.
However, the fact that feelings about President Biden appear to be highly correlated to support, or lack thereof, for Democrats even as his numbers fall nationwide is the most concerning.
Democrat House candidates will be banking on Biden’s support to help them win their races, but with Biden’s favorability in free-fall, bringing him up could do more harm than good.
