“A Democratic loss would raise questions about whether the party’s credo of heavy spending, anti-police rhetoric, Critical Race theory, and endless covid-19 mandates are sustainable long term.”
This November’s rapidly approaching Virginia gubernatorial race is narrowing, and Democrats fear a loss would weaken the party going into the midterm elections.
Recent polling shows Republican challenger Glenn Youngkin closing the gap with former Democrat Governor Terry McAuliffe. Youngkin is now trailing just three points behind McAuliffe in recent FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics polls. In addition, Inside Elections just changed the Virginia gubernatorial race from Likely Democratic to Lean Democratic, and what had weeks ago looked like a long shot for Republicans is looking increasingly possible.
The mainstream media is suddenly clamoring for Democrats to wake up and realize Virginia may not be in the bag. Jim Newell of Slate just dropped a piece titled, “Uh, Maybe Democrats Should Start Paying Attention to the Virginia Governor’s Race” and CNN ran a story warning Democrats should be “worried” about Virginia.
A loss in Virginia would set a somber tone for Democrats heading into the midterm elections. It would also raise questions about whether the party’s credo of heavy spending, Critical Race theory, anti-police rhetoric, and endless covid-19 mandates are sustainable long term.
“A Democratic loss would raise questions about whether the party’s credo of heavy spending, anti-police rhetoric, Critical Race theory, and endless covid-19 mandates are sustainable long term.”
If Youngkin can close the gap this November, it could signal Americans are fed up with the race-baiting, runaway spending, and endless covid-19 restrictions the Democratic Party seems so intent on defending.
McAuliffe still leads in polls, but a new poll of likely voters out of Roanoke College shows several red flags for Democrats heading into the November election.
Virginians say the economy is most important issue, believe the media has blown the pandemic out of proportion
The most sobering data out of the Roanoke poll for Democrats is the issues likely Virginia voters are prioritizing, and those they are not.
The most important issues to Virginians are ‘the economy, jobs, and unemployment’, with 21% of voters choosing these issues. ‘The coronavirus’ is the second most important, with 19% of voters choosing this, and ‘Afghanistan’ is the third most important, with 9% of voters choosing this. For comparison, just 6% of Virginia voters say ‘race relations and social justice’ are the most important issues, 3% say ‘the environment’ is the most important, and a mere 2% say ‘the police’ is the most important.
“The most important issues to Virginians are the economy, jobs, and unemployment.”
While the coronavirus is the second most important issue to Virginia voters this fall, a majority say the media has made the coronavirus pandemic seem worse than it actually is. Forty-two percent of Virginians say the media has misreported on the pandemic and made it seem worse than it actually is, while 38% say the reporting has been accurate.
“Forty-two percent of Virginians say the media has misreported on the pandemic and made it seem worse than it actually is.”
Virginians are also much less concerned about getting ‘very ill’ from the coronavirus now than in previous months, with just 8% saying they think they would get ‘very ill’ if they contracted the virus, down from 16% in November of last year. A majority (61%) say they think they’d only get slightly ill, up from 49% in November of last year.
These data clearly show that for Virginia voters, the Democrats’ social justice narratives and anti-police theatrics are falling flat. Virginian voters are most concerned with strengthening the economy and reducing unemployment, and many believe the media has falsely reported on the coronavirus to make it seem worse than it is.
Republicans have an enthusiasm advantage heading into the gubernatorial race
Republicans hold an ‘enthusiasm advantage’ over Democrats heading into the gubernatorial race. While just 31% of Democrats say they are very enthusiastic about this year’s gubernatorial election, 43% of Republicans say so.
“While just 31% of Democrats say they are very enthusiastic about this year’s gubernatorial election, 43% of Republicans say so.”
The poll also shows this year’s election may bring in new voters. Seventeen percent of likely voters say they didn’t vote in the last gubernatorial election.
“Seventeen percent of likely voters say they didn’t vote in the last gubernatorial election.”
Biden’s unfavorables are rising, and how voters feel about Biden could play a big role in how they vote
The Roanoke poll shows President Biden’s disapproval rating has been rising substantially among Commonwealth voters. Half of voters approve of Biden’s job as President but 45% disapprove, a 15-point jump in his disapproval rating since February.
Biden’s unfavorable rating has also climbed 17 points since February, from just 29% to 46% as of mid-September.
“Biden’s disapproval rating rose 15 points since February and his unfavorable rating rose 17 points according to Roanoke polling.”
The poll also found the largest share of Virginians (48%) rate Biden’s job on Afghanistan as poor, while half that number (24%) rate his job as fair. Just 5% rate Biden’s job on Afghanistan as excellent, and 19% rate his job as good.
As Market Research Foundation pointed out after the election to determine the fate of California Governor Gavin Newsom turned out to be closer than Democrats expected, views of Biden are highly predictive of how people will vote.
With Youngkin closing in on McAuliffe, Biden’s unfavorable numbers going through the roof, an enthusiasm gap that favors Republicans this year, and a majority of Virginians prioritizing the economy, the Virginia Governor’s race is closer than ever.
