Market Research Foundation’s analysis of the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election in Fairfax County demonstrates lower-income and minority voters played a pivotal role in the precincts which shifted away from the Democrat candidate between 2017 and 2021.
Precincts which became significantly less Democrat have higher Hispanic and Asian populations, and an average income nearly 50% lower than those which became more Democrat.
The ten precincts which shifted away from the Democrat candidate by the greatest margins have an average Hispanic population of 35.9%, an average Asian population of 24.9%, and an average household income of $1,042,961. The average Democrat shift in these precincts between 2017 and 2021 is -23.91%.
In comparison, the ten precincts which shifted the most toward the Democrat candidate have an average Hispanic population of 8.3%, an average Asian population of 12.8%, and an average household income of $2,017,195. The average Democrat shift in these precincts between 2017 and 2021 is 6.12%.
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