“Contrary to what pundits have been saying, Youngkin did not “save” the GOP from Trump, but Trump set in motion significant shifts toward the Republican Party, and Youngkin was able to build off them.”
Republican newcomer Glenn Youngkin’s victory in the November 2nd Governor’s race can be largely attributed to massive voter turnout in Trump friendly rural regions, lower Black turnout for Democrats, and moderate gains with suburbanites and college educated whites.
As MRF noted in our post-election analysis, in the 61 localities where Trump won over 60% of the vote in 2020, the average turnout rate on November 2nd was 57.3%, compared to 39.4% for the 2013 Governor’s race. Of the thirty-eight localities with voter turnout rates over 60%, Youngkin won all but two. The remaining thirty-six localities went to Youngkin. Trump also won all but four in 2020.
New analysis of Fairfax County precinct-level shifts away from the 2017 Democratic candidate and victor Ralph Northam toward Glenn Youngkin show the huge impact former President Trump had on the recent GOP victory.
While Youngkin made substantial gains over 2017 GOP candidate Ed Gillespie in Fairfax County, Trump still won a larger percentage of the vote than Youngkin did in 198 precincts which shifted toward the GOP in 2021. Youngkin beat Trump by less than 3% in just five precincts.
“While Youngkin made substantial gains over Gillespie, Trump still won a larger percentage of the vote than Youngkin did in 198 precincts which shifted toward the GOP in 2021. Youngkin beat Trump by less than 3% in just five precincts.”
Market Research Foundation’s comprehensive report on the Fairfax County precincts that shifted away from Democrats between 2017 and 2021 and access to our interactive map can be located here. Below are the Fairfax County precincts that shifted away from Democrats between 2017 and 2021.
The three precincts with the overall largest shifts away from Democrats between 2017 and 2021 – Holmes #1, Weyanoke #1, and Lynbrook – allowed Youngkin to gain a slightly larger share of the vote than Trump did in 2021. In Holmes #1, the precinct that shifted 36.33% away from the Democrat candidate between 2017 and 2021, Trump won 31.39% of the vote in 2020, but Youngkin won 34.22%, giving him a 2.83% advantage over Trump.
However, Trump held a greater than 5% advantage over Youngkin in six out of the top ten precincts.
“Trump held a greater than 5% advantage over Youngkin in six out of the top ten precincts.”
Below are the precincts with the largest shifts away from Democrats between 2017 and 2021, with Trump’s and Youngkin’s percentage of the vote and Youngkin’s percentage over Trump.
As Market Research Foundation reported in our complete precinct-level analysis of Fairfax County, the top precincts which shifted away from Democrats are in moderate income census tracts with large minority populations.
For example, in Willston, which saw a 21.49% shift away from the Democrat candidate between 2017 and 2021, Trump’s advantage over Youngkin was 8.57%. Willston is inside census tract 510594514.00 with an average household income of $86,135, a Hispanic population of 54%, and an Asian population of 22%.
Below are the same precincts which shifted the most toward the GOP between 2017 and 2021 with census tract race and income demographics showing how well Trump and Youngkin did in these regions.
Trump’s role in moving a majority of Fairfax County precincts to the right is even more pronounced when comparing the percentage of the vote GOP candidate Ed Gillespie won in 2017 to the percentage Trump earned in 2020, and then the percentage Youngkin was able to achieve.
“Trump’s role in moving a majority of Fairfax County precincts to the right is even more pronounced when comparing the percentage of the vote GOP candidate Ed Gillespie won in 2017 to the percentage Trump earned in 2020, and then the percentage Youngkin was able to achieve.”
As shown below, Gillespie was achieving margins well under 30% in the top precincts which shifted toward the GOP this year, but Trump getting well over 30% and as high as 45% in 2020.
Youngkin was able to add to Trump’s percentage win in three of the top precincts, but Trump came out ahead in the rest. In Powell, which saw a -19.53% Democrat shift between 2017 and 2021, Gillespie won 28.77%, but Trump won 45.54%. Youngkin was able to gain on Gillespie, but he fell short of Trump at 38.54%.
Contrary to what pundits have been saying since November 2nd, Youngkin did not “save” the GOP from Trump, but Trump set in motion significant shifts toward the Republican Party, and Youngkin was able to build off them.
The fact that Trump was achieving greater than 40% margins in multiple low-income, high minority precincts with some of the greatest reductions in Democratic margins between 2017 and 2021 proves Trump’s vision of a working-class party is emerging.
