Texas Primary Proves GOP Gains with Hispanics are Growing

Nearly double the amount of Texas Hispanics who voted in the GOP primary in 2018 voted in the GOP primary this year.

A senior reporter at CNN has a stark warning for Democrats – their issues with Hispanic voters aren’t going away as the GOP continues to solidify support, especially in Texas.

Following the March 1st Texas primary, CNN data reporter Harry Enten pointed out that Hispanics shifted even further from Democrats, a trend that has accelerated since 2020. Not only did increasing shares of Texas Hispanics vote in the GOP primary this year, a half dozen Hispanic women are running for Congress as Republicans in Texas.

Enten points out that Texas is becoming increasingly Hispanic, with 16 counties in which Hispanics make up 80% or more of the voting age population. For Democrats banking on “demographic destiny” to carry them to victory, this would seem to bolster their votes, but Texas Hispanics are now backing Democrats at lower rates.

In fact, the most Hispanic county in Texas, (Starr County), saw a 55-point-swing away from the Democratic candidate between 2016 and 2020. Starr County backed President Biden by just 5 points in 2020, after backing Hillary by 60 points in 2016.

The most Hispanic county in Texas, (Starr County), saw a 55-point-swing away from the Democratic candidate between 2016 and 2020.

This significant decrease in support for Democrats in Texas has only accelerated since the 2020 election.

Enten’s analysis shows 27% of those who voted in the March 1st Texas primary in the most Hispanic counties voted in the Republican primary. This is nearly double the amount (15%) who voted in the GOP primary in 2018 according to Enten.

Enten notes that the shift in Republican primary participation in the top 16 most dense Hispanic counties was nearly three times the statewide shift toward the GOP, highlighting the impact of Hispanics on the GOP vote.

What’s more, six Hispanic women were on the ballot in the Texas primary as Republican candidates, and polls show Hispanic women are shifting toward the GOP.

It shouldn’t come as a surprise that Democrats are struggling with Hispanic voters, an issue Market Research Foundation has been publishing research on for years. Multiple nationwide polls show Democrats struggling with Hispanics, and losing Hispanic support on issues like immigration, foreign policy, and voter ID laws.

Research conducted by the Pew Research Center found that the exodus of Latinos away from the Democratic Party escalated in 2020. Pew shows Trump’s share of the Hispanic vote nationwide increased by ten percentage points from 28% in 2016 to 38% in 2020. He also earned a significantly higher share of the nationwide Latino vote in 2021 than the 25% that GOP house candidates earned in the 2018 midterms.

MRF has reported on a multitude of factors which are playing a role in the Hispanic exodus from the Democratic Party. In April 2021, MRF noted that Democrats’ attempt to weaken voter ID laws could be a wedge issue for Hispanics. A March 2021 YouGov survey found 64% of Hispanics support a voter ID requirement, compared to 23% who oppose such a requirement. What is more, less than a third of Hispanics would support “universal voting”.

Democrats’ attempts to defund the police also proved to be the wrong issue with Hispanics, with a June 2020 poll finding 58% of Hispanics oppose defunding the police.

What is more, an April 2021 report pointed to an increasing number of Hispanics who blame Biden for the illegal immigrant crisis at the southern border. Hispanics also said they disapproved of Biden’s response to the immigration crisis by a margin of 41% to 37%.

Biden’s approval rating with Hispanics has fallen a full 12 points since his inauguration, dropping from 61% in January 2021 to 49% this month according to YouGov.

Biden’s approval rating with Hispanics has fallen a full 12 points since his inauguration.

The latest YouGov survey shows a substantial share of Hispanics don’t trust President Biden on the Russian-Ukraine debacle, as well as a number of other leadership qualities.

In the February 28th-March 3rd YouGov poll, just 37% of Hispanics say they approve of the way Biden has been handling our foreign policy, compared to 40% who disapprove and 22% who aren’t sure.

The same survey shows only one-third of Hispanics (33%) say they are confident about Biden’s handling of an international crisis, compared to 38% who say they feel uneasy about it and 30% who aren’t sure.

Only one-third of Hispanics (33%) say they are confident about Biden’s handling of an international crisis.

On top of that, just 28% of Hispanics say they think Biden has a clear plan for U.S. strategy with Ukraine, compared to 44% who say they don’t think Biden has a plan and 29% who aren’t sure.

Even in deep blue California, a state Biden easily won in 2020, his approval rating is rapidly falling. A 2022 UC Berkeley poll found that while a larger share of California Hispanics view Biden favorably than unfavorably, his favorable rating is still under 50%. Just 49% of California Hispanics approve of Biden, while 44% disapprove of him.

As Market Research Foundation noted last November, Democrats’ increasingly radical education policies are driving away many Asian and Hispanics voters in Virginia. We found high-minority precincts in Fairfax County saw some of the greatest shifts toward GOP Governor Glenn Youngkin. Hindu voters in Loudoun County also shifted toward the GOP in 2021, driven largely by education issues.

Democrats’ recent issues with Hispanic voters are finally attracting the attention of the mainstream media and presumably worrying party leaders. These Hispanic shifts are indicative of a value set that is simply is no longer aligned with the Democratic Party’s open borders, lawlessness, and radical education agenda. Biden has done more to push Latinos away from the Democratic Party than he has to build lasting support, and Latinos have serious concerns about Biden’s competency and the direction Democrats are taking the nation.