Market Research Foundation’s analysis of the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election in Fairfax County demonstrates lower-income and minority voters played a pivotal role in the precincts which shifted away from the Democrat candidate between 2017 and 2021.
Precincts which became significantly less Democrat have higher Hispanic and Asian populations, and an average income nearly 50% lower than those which became more Democrat.
The ten precincts which shifted away from the Democrat candidate by the greatest margins have an average Hispanic population of 35.9%, an average Asian population of 24.9%, and an average household income of $1,042,961. The average Democrat shift in these precincts between 2017 and 2021 is -23.91%.
In comparison, the ten precincts which shifted the most toward the Democrat candidate have an average Hispanic population of 8.3%, an average Asian population of 12.8%, and an average household income of $2,017,195. The average Democrat shift in these precincts between 2017 and 2021...
Market Research Foundation Report – Analysis of 2020 Election Patterns and Roadmap for The Future
Market Research Foundation was one of the first research organizations to recognize the potential for white non-college voters to increase Republican margins before former President Trump ended up doing so in the 2016 election. Our team has dedicated years of research to better understanding the white non college voter and we have allotted significant time to testing the most efficient path to voter registration and participation.
The 2020 general election marked the highest turnout rate for white non college voters in over 20 years and contributed to an overall rise in the white vote from 65% four years ago to 71% in 2020. Nationwide, the white non-college turnout rate increased 6 points, rising from 58% in 2016 to 64% in 2020 according to new analysis from Brookings.
Non college whites continue to vote overwhelmingly Republican according to...
MRF conducted two polls in Pennsylvania with the goal of finding a 2016 path to victory; one among non-registered voters and one among lapsed voters
§ Non-Registered – used listed consumer sample and purged voters using current state voter file
§ Lapsed Voters – anyone who has not voted since at least 2010; state records were used to identify these individuals
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The mission of Market Research Foundation is to combine big data and predictive analytics with grassroots contact methods to provide citizens with highly targeted, relevant information to make informed civic decisions.
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